Recently, with the recovery of downstream demand for natural rubber, Shanghai Rubber Futures began to show a narrow upward trend, but it was generally maintained between 12500 and 12700. On the 15th, the main rubber contract closed at 12635 yuan/ton overnight, which remained volatile within the day. According to the recent development, it was cautious and bullish, and there was great pressure for the upward rebound.
The supply side is still platitudes. The output of overseas natural rubber is large, and it also flows into the domestic market. The cutting stoppage period is still some days, and negative factors still exist. Although the recovery of the operating rate has helped in the delivery and storage, the specific effect will depend on the terminal sales by the end of the year. In the light of the current poor performance of domestic demand, the terminal is relatively sluggish. In October, China’s heavy truck market sold about 50000 units, down 3% from September this year and 6% from 53500 units in the same period last year. In addition to the epidemic situation and the slowing economic growth, since July 1 last year, the six country policy for diesel vehicles has been implemented nationwide. Therefore, in the first half of last year, the demand for new heavy trucks in the future was overdrawn. Although the global stock market recovery has been boosted to a certain extent, its influence and duration will not be very strong, because on the global macro level, consumption is tight, and product shipments have yet to be verified over time.
The rebound pattern has turned into an interval shock. At this time, the lower cost support is limited, and the upward trend is expected to remain around 12500 in November.
Post time: Nov-16-2022
